Population

From this area you can access the latest district and county level mid-year population estimates and projections at county, district, local planning area and district-ward level. 

Current Population Estimates

The Registrar General’s mid-year estimates of population are produced annually by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

2010 population mid-year estimates

Population Projections (2010-26)

The projections aim to provide estimates of changes in population size and demographic structure in Buckinghamshire. These projections are designed for use by all BSP service providers, to contribute to the informing of planning for future service provision. Below and in the left hand menu are links to the County and District Projection pages

• Buckinghamshire County Projections
• Aylesbury Vale District Projections
• Chiltern District Projections
• South Bucks District Projections
• Wycombe District Projections

Local Area Projections

The Local Area Projections (including Ward Projections) provide an indication of more localised population changes within Districts. Population change summaries by age bands, full projections data tables and supporting information documents are available via the links in the table at the bottom of this page.

• Local Area Projections (including Ward Projections)

“Source: Bucks Strategic Partnership (BSP) October 2010. These projections are not suitable to calculate developer contributions for school places which will use more localised data.  They must be used alongside the guidance documentation provided on the BSP website: http://www.buckinghamshirepartnership.gov.uk/partnership/BSP/partners/population.page?

Note: Planned housing growth used in the projections. The level of housing growth is largely undecided for Aylesbury Vale District post-2016; therefore projection figures in Aylesbury Vale District and for the County are likely to be higher than shown.”

Ten things you need to know about using the projections

1. Population trends at district/county level cannot be uniformly applied to all areas within the district - the 18 'local area' guides must be used to understand population change

2. Ward projections must be used in conjunction with the interpretation included in the appropriate 'local area' guide (i.e. which the ward mainly falls within – see the ward-to-planning area lookup table)

3. Projections for Aylesbury Vale District are based on currently known housing developments in the District, developments are likely to increase significantly post 2016 - so the population in Aylesbury Vale is likely to be significantly higher than shown

4. These projections are not suitable to calculate developer contributions for school places, which will use more localised data

5. School age children - past figures show that the number of children varies considerably over time (driven by births, the number of females, fertility rates and migration) and it is, therefore, difficult to forecast future numbers of children - the figures should be treated with caution

6. The output figures are projections, therefore by their nature they are estimates designed to give a rough impression of potential future (coarse) population change, based on a number of assumptions. Projections further ahead should be relied on less than the first few years

7. The size of dwellings for future housing growth is not factored into the model - this may affect population numbers where there are a large number of developments of a specific size (e.g. flats or large family houses)

8. The BSP projections apply local datasets (NHS/GP-registered children (aged 0-17) and those recorded on the Electoral Register (aged 18+)) to ensure the projections’ base (2010) populations reflect the numbers of people currently provided for by our public services

9. District projections, compared to district aggregations of ward projections - district projections use slightly more robust fertility and migration information and generally produce a slightly higher projection than the ward aggregations. Users will consider that the ward figures could be slightly higher (1.8% for Buckinghamshire) when using these figures

10. The following source text must be quoted whenever using the BSP projections:

“Source: Bucks Strategic Partnership (BSP) October 2010. These projections are not suitable to calculate developer contributions for school places which will use more localised data.  They must be used alongside the guidance documentation provided on the BSP website: http://www.buckinghamshirepartnership.gov.uk/partnership/BSP/partners/population.page?

Note: Planned housing growth used in the projections. The level of housing growth is largely undecided for Aylesbury Vale District post-2016; therefore projection figures in Aylesbury Vale District and for the County are likely to be higher than shown.”

Overseas Migration 2001-2010

The number of people moving into Buckinghamshire from overseas are recorded when they register with their local GP.  These are called Flag 4 registrations